Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment

24 Pages Posted: 17 May 2010  

Richard K. Crump

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Gopi Shah Goda

Stanford University

Kevin J. Mumford

Purdue University

Date Written: May 2010

Abstract

One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specfication is appropriate, we show that the Whittington et al. results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. While we do not find evidence that child tax benefits affect the level of fertility, we find some evidence of a short-run fertility response that occurs with a two-year lag.

Suggested Citation

Crump, Richard K. and Goda, Gopi Shah and Mumford, Kevin J., Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment (May 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w15984. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1607474

Richard K. Crump (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

Gopi Shah Goda

Stanford University ( email )

SIEPR
366 Galvez St.
Stanford, CA 94305
United States
6507360480 (Phone)

Kevin J. Mumford

Purdue University ( email )

West Lafayette, IN 47907-1310
United States
7654966773 (Phone)
7654967434 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.mgmt.purdue.edu/faculty/kjmumfor/home.asp

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