Value Versus Growth: Time-Varying Expected Stock Returns
36 Pages Posted: 17 May 2010 Last revised: 14 Sep 2010
Date Written: May 2010
Is the value premium predictable? We study time-variations of the expected value premium using a two-state Markov switching model. We find that when conditional volatilities are high, the expected excess returns of value stocks are more sensitive to aggregate economic conditions than the expected excess returns of growth stocks. As a result, the expected value premium is time-varying: it spikes upward in the high-volatility state, only to decline more gradually in the ensuring periods. However, out-of-sample predictability of the value premium is close to nonexistent.
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