Poverty Impact of the Economic Slowdown in Developing Asia: Some Scenarios

15 Pages Posted: 17 May 2010

See all articles by Rana Hasan

Rana Hasan

Asian Development Bank; University of Maryland - Department of Economics

Maria Rhoda Magsombol

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jewelwayne Cain

University of Missouri-Columbia

Date Written: April 2009

Abstract

This paper uses the empirical relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction observed between 1990 and 2005 and different scenarios for economic growth to get a sense of how the economic slowdown in the region will affect the incidence of poverty. Since most countries that we work with in this paper experience an increase in gross domestic product per capita even under our “low growth” scenario, poverty in developing Asia continues to decline in 2009 and 2010. What gets adversely affected, however, is the pace of poverty reduction. In particular, our estimates indicate that a reduction in growth of GDP per capita of 3 percentage points over growth registered in 2007 - a year of high growth for many Asian developing countries - would result in almost 61 million additional $1.25/day poor in 2009 and 98 million additional poor in 2010 as compared to a baseline scenario of no economic slowdown.

Suggested Citation

Hasan, Rana and Magsombol, Maria Rhoda and Cain, Jewelwayne, Poverty Impact of the Economic Slowdown in Developing Asia: Some Scenarios (April 2009). Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper No. 153. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1607540 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1607540

Rana Hasan (Contact Author)

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States
808-944-7590 (Phone)
808-944-7399 (Fax)

Maria Rhoda Magsombol

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Jewelwayne Cain

University of Missouri-Columbia ( email )

Department of Economics
326 Professional Building
Columbia, MO Columbia 65211
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.missouri.edu/~jsc535

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