Fractional Cointegration in US Term Spreads

12 Pages Posted: 31 May 2010

See all articles by Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance; London South Bank University; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Luis A. Gil-Alana

University of Navarra - Department of Economics

Date Written: March 1, 2010

Abstract

This note examines the stochastic properties of US term spreads with parametric and semi-parametric fractional integration techniques. Since the observed data (rather than the estimated residuals from a cointegrating regression) are used for the analysis, standard methods can be applied. The results indicate that US Treasury maturity rates are I(1) in most cases, although the order of integration decreases with maturity. Further, mean reversion occurs for the 5, 7 and 10 year rates as well as for several term spreads, suggesting that the expectation hypothesis of the term structure is satisfied empirically.

Keywords: Term structure, Long memory, Fractional integration, Fractional cointegration

JEL Classification: C22, E43

Suggested Citation

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Gil-Alana, Luis A., Fractional Cointegration in US Term Spreads (March 1, 2010). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 981, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1617274 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1617274

Guglielmo Maria Caporale (Contact Author)

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/about/acad/bbs/bbsstaff/ef_staff/guglielmocaporale/

London South Bank University ( email )

Centre for Monetary and Financial Economics
London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Luis A. Gil-Alana

University of Navarra - Department of Economics ( email )

Campus de Arrosadia
Pamplona, 31006
Spain

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