Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on African Agricultural Production Systems

Climate Change Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 35-55, May 2010

Posted: 1 Jun 2010

See all articles by Charles Nhemachena

Charles Nhemachena

University of Pretoria

Rashid M. Hassan

University of Pretoria

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; United Nations Development Programme

Date Written: May 1, 2010

Abstract

This study measured the economic impacts of climate change on crop and livestock farming in Africa based on a cross-sectional survey of over 8000 farming households from 11 countries in east, west, north and southern Africa. The response of net revenue from crop and livestock agriculture across various farm types and systems in Africa to changes in climate normals (i.e. mean rainfall and temperature) is analysed. The analyses controlled for effects of key socioeconomic, technology, soil and hydrological factors influencing agricultural production. Results show that net farm revenues are in general negatively affected by warmer and drier climates. The small-scale mixed crop and livestock system predominantly typical in Africa is the most tolerant whereas specialized crop production is the most vulnerable to warming and lower rainfall. These results have important policy implications, especially for the suitability of the increasing tendency toward large-scale mono-cropping strategies for agricultural development in Africa and other parts of the developing world in light of expected climate changes. Mixed crop and livestock farming and irrigation offered better adaptation options for farmers against further warming and drying predicted under various future climate scenarios.

Keywords: Climate Change, Impacts, Agriculture, Africa, Ricardian Model

Suggested Citation

Nhemachena, Charles and Hassan, Rashid M. and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on African Agricultural Production Systems (May 1, 2010). Climate Change Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 35-55, May 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1618689

Charles Nhemachena (Contact Author)

University of Pretoria ( email )

Physical Address Economic and Management Sciences
Pretoria, Gauteng 0002
South Africa

Rashid M. Hassan

University of Pretoria ( email )

Physical Address Economic and Management Sciences
Pretoria, Gauteng 0002
South Africa

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
2129066843 (Phone)

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

New Haven, CT 06511
United States

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