Limit to Improvement in Running and Swimming

International Journal of Applied Management Science, Vol. 3, pp. 97-120, 2011

22 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2010 Last revised: 30 Dec 2010

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Seung-Jin Baek

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

Date Written: June 1, 2010

Abstract

Can human performance continue to improve indefinitely? Or improvement will eventually slow due to the existence of maximum limit? In this paper, the world records of sixty-one sport events in running and swimming through the last hundred years have been analyzed to answer the question about the limit of human performance. The maximum limit for individual sport event has been estimated by the use of nonlinear regression models. A new concept of “Time to Limit” is developed to measure the number of years to reach the maximum limit. The averaged “Time to Limit” for the sixty-one sport events is calculated in the range of 7.48 to 10.55 years. This study concludes with a number of policy implications for the local and national sport associations as well as for the international rule-setting federations. This study concludes that the time to limit projection made in this report is likely to be altered by the future rule changes to be made by the international federations.

Keywords: World Record, Time to Limit, Logistic Regression, Running, Swimming

JEL Classification: D71, L83

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Baek, Seung-Jin, Limit to Improvement in Running and Swimming (June 1, 2010). International Journal of Applied Management Science, Vol. 3, pp. 97-120, 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1618806

Yu Sang Chang (Contact Author)

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Seung-Jin Baek

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia ( email )

Beirut
Lebanon
+9611978418 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.unescwa.org/

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