The Causal Effect of Election Delay on Union Win Rates: Instrumental Variable Estimates from Two Natural Experiments

16 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2010

Abstract

The role of election delay in union organizing campaigns has become a key policy issue in several countries. Previous studies have documented a negative correlation between delay and union success. However, elections are generally not randomly delayed; in particular, election delay is correlated with various “hard-to-observe” union and employer strategies. This article exploits several exogenous sources of variation in election delay to estimate a causal model. The results indicate that two-stage least squares estimates of the causal effect of election delay on union success are twice the magnitude of standard OLS estimates.

Suggested Citation

Riddell, Chris, The Causal Effect of Election Delay on Union Win Rates: Instrumental Variable Estimates from Two Natural Experiments. Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 371-386, July 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1619055 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-232X.2010.00605.x

Chris Riddell (Contact Author)

Queen's University ( email )

Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6 K7L 3N6
Canada

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