Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Latin America

CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA , Multi-Science Publishing, Brentwood, Essex, UK, 2011

Posted: 2 Jun 2010 Last revised: 18 Nov 2014

See all articles by Hector E. Maletta

Hector E. Maletta

Universidad del Pacífico

Emiliano Maletta

Center for Energy, Environment and Technology Research, Madrid, Spain

Date Written: June 2, 2010

Abstract

This monograph reviews evidence on probable impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) up to year 2100, based on the IPCC climate projections (though discussing some of their limitations) and the best impact estimates available. Key concepts and methods are analyzed and discussed, and also past trends regarding agricultural output, food consumption, undernourishment and malnutrition, as well as other (non-climate) factors affecting food security: population growth, urbanization, economic development and income distribution. Some crosscutting climatic issues are reviewed: sea-level rise, El Niño, and the Amazon forest. Finally, estimates of the impact of climate change on agriculture are discussed based on two main approaches: Ricardian Models and Integrated Assessment Models; expected impacts on undernourishment are also analyzed. Conclusion: even strong climate change may involve only a small (positive or negative) overall impact on expected agricultural production of 2100 or any time before. Several Latin American subregions would actually benefit from climate change, especially the plains around the River Plate and the high-altitude Andean plateaux. The number of people at risk of hunger would become small or vanishing well before 2100, for the region and practically all its countries. Even in the worst cases, like Haiti, Central America or Bolivia, economic access to food would be greatly enhanced, with undernourishment expected to affect a small percentage of people by the late 21st Century. The study discusses several policy options to minimize negative impacts (and enhance positive impacts) of climate change on agriculture and food security in the LAC region.

Keywords: climate change, food security, hunger, agriculture, Latin America, Caribbean, impact, adaptation, IPCC, Ricardian models, Integrated Assessment Models

JEL Classification: I12, I31, J11, J13, N56, 013, O54, Q10, Q11, Q12, Q16, Q18, Q23, Q24, Q25, Q28, R14

Suggested Citation

Maletta, Hector E. and Maletta, Emiliano, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Latin America (June 2, 2010). CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA , Multi-Science Publishing, Brentwood, Essex, UK, 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1619395

Hector E. Maletta (Contact Author)

Universidad del Pacífico ( email )

Av Salaverry 2020
Lima, 11
Peru

Emiliano Maletta

Center for Energy, Environment and Technology Research, Madrid, Spain ( email )

Madrid
Spain

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