Forecasting the Storm: Power Cycle Theory and Conflict in the Major Power System

Abstract

Unpredicted and unpredictable storms have cut a disastrous swathe through coastal communities in recent years. If the international relations system can be imagined as a peaceful coast, then conflict is the storm that wrecks havoc upon those in its path. One goal, then, of those within the discipline who study conflict is to forecast these international storms and, in power cycle theory, there exists a method which is of some utility to this end. This paper re-introduces power cycle theory, explaining its components and methodology before introducing the specific changes to the method that are the result of the author’s research. A strong, positive correlation between conflict and ‘critical points’ on the power cycles of states is established and it is concluded that this reformulated power cycle theory may offer new insights for explaining and predicting conflict.

Keywords: Power Cycle Theory, System, International