International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective

50 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2010 Last revised: 6 Jul 2010

See all articles by Michael D. Bordo

Michael D. Bordo

Rutgers University, New Brunswick - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Thomas Helbling

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Middle East and Central Asia Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2010

Abstract

In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

Suggested Citation

Bordo, Michael D. and Helbling, Thomas, International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective (June 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16103. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1626592

Michael D. Bordo (Contact Author)

Rutgers University, New Brunswick - Department of Economics ( email )

New Brunswick, NJ
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Thomas Helbling

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Middle East and Central Asia Department ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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