Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects of Medicaid Expansions on Take-Up and Crowd-Out

38 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2010 Last revised: 12 Jul 2010

See all articles by John C. Ham

John C. Ham

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics

Serkan Ozbeklik

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance; Claremont McKenna College

Lara D. Shore-Sheppard

Williams College - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 2010

Abstract

Economists have devoted considerable resources to estimating local average treatment effects of expansions in Medicaid eligibility for children. In this paper we use random coefficients linear probability models and switching probit models to estimate a more complete range of effects of Medicaid expansion on Medicaid take-up and crowd-out of private insurance. We demonstrate how to estimate, for Medicaid expansions, the average effect among all of those eligible, the average effect for a randomly chosen person, the effect for a marginally eligible child, and the average effect for those affected by a nonmarginal counterfactual policy change. We then estimate the average effect of Medicaid expansions among all eligible children and the average effect for those affected by a nonmarginal counterfactual Medicaid expansion since these are likely to be the most useful for policy analysis. Estimated take-up rates among average eligible children are substantially larger than take-up rates for those made eligible by a counterfactual Medicaid expansion, moreover both of these effects vary widely across demographic groups. In terms of crowd-out, we find statistically significant, though small, effects for all eligible children, but not for those affected by a counterfactual policy change.

Suggested Citation

Ham, John C. and Ozbeklik, Serkan and Shore-Sheppard, Lara Dawn, Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects of Medicaid Expansions on Take-Up and Crowd-Out (June 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16112. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1626601

John C. Ham

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics ( email )

1 Arts Link, AS2 #06-02
Singapore 117570, Singapore 119077
Singapore

Serkan Ozbeklik

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance ( email )

500 E. Ninth St.
Claremont, CA 91711-6420
United States

Claremont McKenna College ( email )

Robert Day School of Economics and Finance
Claremont, CA 91711
United States

Lara Dawn Shore-Sheppard

Williams College - Department of Economics ( email )

Williamstown, MA 01267
United States
413-597-2226 (Phone)
413-597-4045 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
17
Abstract Views
304
PlumX Metrics