Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

34 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2010

See all articles by Joe Crowley

Joe Crowley

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: June 2010

Abstract

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different cross sections of countries are tested or when different regression variables are included. The pattern of inflation is explained mainly by past inflation, the strength of the US dollar, US inflation, and - depending on the subset of countries analyzed - monetary and exchange rate policies and nonfuel commodity prices.

Keywords: Commodity prices, Cross country analysis, Dollarization, Economic models, Exchange rate policy, Exchange rates, Inflation, Middle East and Central Asia, Monetary policy, Money supply, North Africa, Oil prices, Time series

Suggested Citation

Crowley, Joeseph, Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia (June 2010). IMF Working Paper No. 10/135, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1627070

Joeseph Crowley (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

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