Dynamic Volatility Trading Strategies in the Currency Option Market Using Stochastic Volatility Forecasts

Abstract

The conditional volatility of foreign exchange rates can be predicted with GARCH models, and with implied volatility extracted from currency options. This paper investigates whether the difference in these predictions is economically meaningful. In an efficient market, after accounting for transaction costs and risk, no trading strategy should earn abnormal risk-adjusted returns. In the absence of transaction costs, both the delta-neutral and the straddle trading stratgies lead to significant positive economic profits against the option market, regardless of which volatility prediction method is used. The agent using the Implied Stochastic Volatility Regression method (ISVR) earns larger profits than the agent using the GARCH method. However, after accounting for the transaction costs assumed to equal one percent of market prices, observed profits are not significantly different from zero in most trading strategies; the exception is for an agent using the ISVR method with a 5% price filter. Finally, on risk adjusted basis, the dynamic volatility trading strategies offered better risk-return relation: higher Sharpe ratio, lower correlation with several asset classes, and higher abnormal returns. This is attractive for investors who want to improve the risk-return profile of their portfolio through diversification.

JEL Classification: G13, C32