Monte Carlo Simulation of Damage by Disaster: A Case Study in West Bengal

11 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2010 Last revised: 29 Jan 2018

See all articles by Tuhin K. Das

Tuhin K. Das

Jadavpur University

Ivy Das Gupta

Bhawanipur Education Society College

Date Written: June 29, 2010

Abstract

Of all natural disasters, floods are the most consistently recurring events in India. India has several regions that are particularly vulnerable to floods. During the last decade India was affected by flood more than other events. An analysis of vulnerability of flood in different States in India reveals that West Bengal can be identified as one of the most flood prone areas in India. Although flood has become a regular phenomenon in West Bengal, its extent of damage is uncertain. In some years less than 5 million people are affected by flood whereas in some yeas this number exceeds 20 million. Number of people affected by flood is directly related to the geographical area under flood. People are affected through damages of house, losses of life, illness, damages of agricultural crop, disruption of transport system, etc. When people are affected they need rescue operation, financial and material relief, and medical treatment. Thus forecasting of the extent of flood affected area and its expected damage is highly needed. In this paper we have made an attempt to predict the extent of flood affected area in West Bengal using Monte Carlo Simulation. Then an attempt has been made to analyse the relations between the extent of flood and the damage caused thereby using a path model.

Keywords: disaster, simulation, vulnerability, path analysis, damage, flood impact

JEL Classification: C15, C51

Suggested Citation

Das, Tuhin K. and Das Gupta, Ivy, Monte Carlo Simulation of Damage by Disaster: A Case Study in West Bengal (June 29, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1632337 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1632337

Tuhin K. Das (Contact Author)

Jadavpur University ( email )

Planning & Development Unit, Jadavpur University
Kolkata 700032, India
Kolkata, AK 700032
India
+919836986615 (Phone)

Ivy Das Gupta

Bhawanipur Education Society College ( email )

5 LLR SARANI
Kolkata, 700020
India

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