Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy: The Design, Use and Relevance of Foresight Methods in Hungary

Havas, Attila

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Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy: The Design, Use and Relevance of Foresight Methods in Hungary

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22 (2003), No. 2-3, pp. 179–201

27 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 2010 Last revised: 29 Aug 2015

See all articles by Attila Havas

Attila Havas

Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) - Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (HAS)

Date Written: March 1, 2003

Abstract

Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered.

Keywords: technology foresight, innovation system, visions (futures), economic transition, Hungary

JEL Classification: O10, O20, O33, O38, O52, P27

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Havas, Attila, Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy: The Design, Use and Relevance of Foresight Methods in Hungary (March 1, 2003). Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22 (2003), No. 2-3, pp. 179–201, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1632344