The Future of Chinese Growth

27 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2010 Last revised: 28 Jun 2011

David Beim

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics

Date Written: January 24, 2011

Abstract

China’s real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 10% for the last 30 years. A period of such super-growth is historically most unusual and now is likely nearing an end. The devices that have stimulated growth in the past – heavy capital investment and a massive focus on exports – face constraints: capital investment faces diminishing returns, and exports are undermined by wage inflation. Both constraints are visible in China today. China needs to stimulate domestic consumption of its prodigious output, but this is easier said than done. A push to do so will damage the export model well before it succeeds in building a replacement.

Keywords: China, growth, exports, value destruction, crisis, NPL

JEL Classification: E21, E22, F14, F43, G21

Suggested Citation

Beim, David, The Future of Chinese Growth (January 24, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1635400 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1635400

David O. Beim (Contact Author)

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

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