Why Did HIV Decline in Uganda?

48 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2010 Last revised: 9 Sep 2010

See all articles by Marcella Alsan

Marcella Alsan

Stanford University

David M. Cutler

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: July 2010

Abstract

Uganda is widely viewed as a public health success for curtailing its HIV/AIDS epidemic in the early 1990s. We investigate the factors contributing to this decline. We first build a model of HIV transmission. Calibration of the model indicates that reduced pre-marital sexual activity among young women is the most important factor in the decline in HIV. We next explore what led young women to change their behavior. We estimate that approximately one-third the reduction in HIV in this cohort and almost 20 percent of the overall HIV decline was due to a gender-targeted education policy.

Suggested Citation

Alsan, Marcella and Cutler, David M., Why Did HIV Decline in Uganda? (July 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16171. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1636600

Marcella Alsan (Contact Author)

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

David M. Cutler

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center, Room 315A
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-496-5216 (Phone)
617-495-8570 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-868-3900 (Phone)
617-868-2742 (Fax)

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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