Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade During the Global Financial Crisis

45 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2010 Last revised: 12 Sep 2010

See all articles by Davin Chor

Davin Chor

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics

Kalina Manova

University College London - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2010

Abstract

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.

Suggested Citation

Chor, Davin and Manova, Kalina B., Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade During the Global Financial Crisis (July 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16174. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1636643

Davin Chor (Contact Author)

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Economics ( email )

1 Arts Link, AS2 #06-02
Singapore 117570, Singapore 119077
Singapore

Kalina B. Manova

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Drayton House, 30 Gordon Street
30 Gordon Street
London, WC1H 0AX
United Kingdom

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
35
Abstract Views
16,394
PlumX Metrics