Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update
36 Pages Posted: 19 Jul 2010
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Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update
Date Written: June 2010
Abstract
We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.
Keywords: cross-section, current account, data, early warning, empirical, GDP, growth, recession
JEL Classification: E65, F30
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation