Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

36 Pages Posted: 19 Jul 2010

See all articles by Andrew Kenan Rose

Andrew Kenan Rose

University of California - Haas School of Business; NUS Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Mark M. Spiegel

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic Research Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2010

Abstract

We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

Keywords: cross-section, current account, data, early warning, empirical, GDP, growth, recession

JEL Classification: E65, F30

Suggested Citation

Rose, Andrew Kenan and Rose, Andrew Kenan and Spiegel, Mark M., Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update (June 2010). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7901, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1640978

Andrew Kenan Rose (Contact Author)

University of California - Haas School of Business ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose

NUS Business School ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Mark M. Spiegel

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic Research Department ( email )

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San Francisco, CA 94105
United States
415-974-3184 (Phone)
415-974-2168 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/economists/mspiegel.html

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