Forecasting the House of Representatives' Seat Division in the 2010 Midterm Election

Abstract

In this article, we present a forecast of the 2010 midterm House election based on information available in early July 2010. We combine this forecast with a note of caution, explaining why electoral circumstances might lead our forecast to err. Finally, we present guidance regarding how to update the electoral forecast for 2010 based on new information that will become available leading up to Election Day.

Our forecast, based on information gathered in early July 2010, is a likely Republican takeover of the House. In terms of the national vote, the most likely outcome is a solid Republican plurality of close to 53% of the two-party vote. Damage to the Democrats is minimized somewhat in the translation of votes into seats. By our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 229 seats versus 206 for the Democrats. Assuming our model is correct but taking into account its uncertainty, the Republicans have a 79% chance of winning the House.