Intention to Vote, Reported Vote, and Validated Vote

18 Pages Posted: 12 May 2011

See all articles by Christopher Achen

Christopher Achen

Princeton University - Department of Political Science

André Blais

University of Montreal - Department of Political Science

Date Written: 2010

Abstract

Pre-election “intention to vote” has come to substitute for “reported vote” or “validated vote” in many studies of turnout. The differences among them have been little studied. In this report, we examine all three jointly in a single U.S. dataset for what we believe is the first time. We find that the same variables tend to be influential for all three measures, but not to the same degree. In particular, intentions are not always translated into actual behavior, so that explanatory coefficients tend to be smaller for validated turnout studies than for vote intention. Reported vote coefficients generally fall between the other two, because some citizens report their actual behavior while others report their noble intentions.

Suggested Citation

Achen, Christopher and Blais, André, Intention to Vote, Reported Vote, and Validated Vote (2010). APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1642497

Christopher Achen (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Department of Political Science ( email )

Corwin Hall
Princeton, NJ 08544-1012
United States

André Blais

University of Montreal - Department of Political Science ( email )

Pavillon Lionel-Groulx
3150, rue Jean-Brillant
Montréal, Québec H3T 1N8
Canada
514-343-7349 (Phone)

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