Measuring the Individual-Level Determinants of Social Insurance Preferences: Survey Evidence from the 2008 Argentine Pension Nationalization
Matthew E. Carnes
Columbia University - Department of Political Science
Forthcoming in Latin American Research Review 48:3 (Fall 2013)
This study employs an original, nationally representative survey of individuals in Argentina to understand the economic and political factors that shape individual-level preferences for social insurance. In the past two decades, Latin American democracies have undertaken significant changes in their social welfare institutions, in some cases dramatically reversing course from previous policies. We develop a theoretical framework to explain how and when citizens will shift their preferences over competing social policy proposals. We emphasize the role of dissatisfaction with prevailing policies in creating political opportunities for the introduction of sweeping reforms. Our survey capitalizes on the 2008 pension reform in Argentina to test competing hypotheses regarding preferences for different kinds of old-age insurance. We find that socioeconomic status and personal experience with earlier policies shape the role partisanship plays in forming preferences about changes in social insurance programs.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 37
Date posted: July 19, 2010 ; Last revised: August 6, 2012