Right on Crime? The Spatial Politics of Crime in El Salvador

Abstract

Despite a growing literature on the left in Latin America, few studies consider the fate of the right. This paper examines a highly successful conservative party, the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), which held power for close to two decades in El Salvador. ARENA used crime to boost its support among constituencies buffeted by crime. The uneven threat posed by the far right explains the timing of ARENA’s promotion of mano dura policies. But the electoral appeal of mano dura policies varied across time and space. In 1997, mano dura policies helped ARENA regain votes in rural communities and those most affected by civil war violence. Communities that experienced high levels of both civil war and postwar violence, however, turned away from ARENA. In 2004, the impact of the civil war faded. Mano dura policies appealed to voters in urban and high-crime areas, regardless of historical experiences.