Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle?
31 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2010
Date Written: July 22, 2010
The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third, there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.
Keywords: Housing, business cycles, filtering
JEL Classification: E32, R21, R32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation