Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle?

31 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2010

Date Written: July 22, 2010

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third, there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.

Keywords: Housing, business cycles, filtering

JEL Classification: E32, R21, R32

Suggested Citation

Álvarez, Luis J. and Cabrero, Alberto, Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle? (July 22, 2010). Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1024, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1646845 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1646845

Luis J. Álvarez (Contact Author)

Banco de España ( email )

Madrid 28014
Spain

Alberto Cabrero

Banco de España ( email )

Madrid 28014
Spain

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
73
Abstract Views
933
rank
371,925
PlumX Metrics