International Aviation Emissions to 2025: Can Emissions Be Stabilised Without Restricting Demand?

27 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2010  

Andrew Macintosh

Australian National University - ANU College of Law

Lailey Wallace

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: 2008

Abstract

International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416 Mt to between 876 and 1013 Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand.

Suggested Citation

Macintosh, Andrew and Wallace, Lailey, International Aviation Emissions to 2025: Can Emissions Be Stabilised Without Restricting Demand? (2008). ANU College of Law Research Paper No. 10-44. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1647444

Andrew Macintosh (Contact Author)

Australian National University - ANU College of Law ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Lailey Wallace

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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