Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors

58 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2010

See all articles by Monica Billio

Monica Billio

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia

Mila Getmansky Sherman

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Eugene M. Isenberg School of Management - Department of Finance

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)

Loriana Pelizzon

Goethe University Frankfurt - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Goethe University Frankfurt - Research Center SAFE; Ca Foscari University of Venice

Date Written: July 2010

Abstract

We propose several econometric measures of systemic risk to capture the interconnectedness among the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies based on principal components analysis and Granger-causality tests. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power for the current financial crisis. Our results suggest that hedge funds can provide early indications of market dislocation, and systemic risk arises from a complex and dynamic network of relationships among hedge funds, banks, insurance companies, and brokers.

Suggested Citation

Billio, Monica and Getmansky Sherman, Mila and Lo, Andrew W. and Pelizzon, Loriana, Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors (July 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16223. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1648023

Monica Billio (Contact Author)

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.unive.it/persone/billio

Mila Getmansky Sherman

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Eugene M. Isenberg School of Management - Department of Finance ( email )

Amherst, MA 01003-4910
United States

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

100 Main Street
E62-618
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-0920 (Phone)
781 891-9783 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://web.mit.edu/alo/www

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)

Stata Center
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

Loriana Pelizzon

Goethe University Frankfurt - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3
Frankfurt am Main, D-60323
Germany

Goethe University Frankfurt - Research Center SAFE ( email )

Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.safe-frankfurt.de

Ca Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Dorsoduro 3246
Venice, Veneto 30123
Italy

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