Forecasting Road Fatalities by the Use of Kinked Experience Curve

Int. J. Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Vl. 5, No. 4, 2013

KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper No. 10-07

33 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2010 Last revised: 7 Jan 2014

See all articles by Yu Sang Chang

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Date Written: January 17, 2011

Abstract

According to the World Health Organization, more than one million road traffic deaths occur every year throughout the world. Many countries have established quantified road safety targets in response. Road safety targets need to be based on reliable forecasting methods. This paper attempts to develop such forecasting models for 13 OECD countries based on the data available from 1970 to 2007.

Deploying the methodology of both classical and kinked experience curves, we obtained the averaged experience slope of 55% from the kinked experience curve in contrast to 68.6% from the classical experience curve. The averaged standard deviation and R2 calculated also show better fit to the data for the kinked analysis.

For the two simulated forecasting periods, we, then, calculate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to measure forecasting accuracy. In comparing the MAPEs, we find that forecasting accuracy for the kinked models is significantly higher.

Finally, we use our kinked models to forecast the road fatalities for 13 countries through 2030. All the countries will experience a considerable reduction in their road fatality rates. The averaged fatality rate of 7.94 in 2010 for these 13 countries is projected to decline to 5.83 in 2020 and 4.54 in 2030.

Keywords: Road Fatalities, Experience Curve, Kinked Experience Curve

JEL Classification: R41, R48

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Lee, Jinsoo, Forecasting Road Fatalities by the Use of Kinked Experience Curve (January 17, 2011). Int. J. Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Vl. 5, No. 4, 2013, KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper No. 10-07, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1650482 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1650482

Yu Sang Chang (Contact Author)

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
822-3299-1060 (Phone)
822-968-5072 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.kdischool.ac.kr

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