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Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine’s Orange Revolution

MICROCON Research Working Paper No. 30

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1115

46 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2010 Last revised: 29 Mar 2011

Carlos Bozzoli

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops; ISDC - International Security and Development Center; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: July 29, 2010

Abstract

This paper is the first study that analyzes the drivers of political protest using longitudinal data from a critical revolution that changed – at least temporarily – the political landscape in a transition country. We make use of a rich dataset consisting of panel data collected before and after the so called “Orange” revolution in Ukraine. Our empirical approach tackles two different – and equally interesting – features of the revolution: the determinants of participation (both in the protests and counter-protests) and the “selection” of participants into different levels of involvement (i.e. intensity of participation). We consider different drivers of participation, from traditional proxies for opportunities and grievances, but we also analyze the role of political and economic preferences, risk tolerance, life satisfaction, and indicators of network connectivity. What emerges from this study is a more nuanced pattern of participation that does not link uniquely to a single theoretical model.

Keywords: Conflict, Protest, Transition Economy, Ukraine, Longitudinal Studies

JEL Classification: P27, D74

Suggested Citation

Bozzoli, Carlos and Brück, Tilman, Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (July 29, 2010). MICROCON Research Working Paper No. 30; DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1115. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1650592 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1650592

Carlos Bozzoli (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops ( email )

Theodor-Echtermeyer-Str. 1
Grossbeeren, 14979
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.igzev.de

ISDC - International Security and Development Center ( email )

Friedrichstr. 88
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.isd-center.org

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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