Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine’s Orange Revolution
MICROCON Research Working Paper No. 30
46 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2010 Last revised: 29 Mar 2011
Date Written: July 29, 2010
This paper is the first study that analyzes the drivers of political protest using longitudinal data from a critical revolution that changed – at least temporarily – the political landscape in a transition country. We make use of a rich dataset consisting of panel data collected before and after the so called “Orange” revolution in Ukraine. Our empirical approach tackles two different – and equally interesting – features of the revolution: the determinants of participation (both in the protests and counter-protests) and the “selection” of participants into different levels of involvement (i.e. intensity of participation). We consider different drivers of participation, from traditional proxies for opportunities and grievances, but we also analyze the role of political and economic preferences, risk tolerance, life satisfaction, and indicators of network connectivity. What emerges from this study is a more nuanced pattern of participation that does not link uniquely to a single theoretical model.
Keywords: Conflict, Protest, Transition Economy, Ukraine, Longitudinal Studies
JEL Classification: P27, D74
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation