Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

2 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2010

See all articles by Andreas Graefe

Andreas Graefe

Macromedia University of Applied Sciences

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida

Randall J. Jones

University of Central Oklahoma

Date Written: January 1, 2009

Abstract

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket’s share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46.6% (as of the end of November). In his Hot New Research column in this issue, Paul Goodwin discusses the benefits of combining forecasts. The success of the Pollyvote should further enhance interest is this approach to forecasting.

Suggested Citation

Graefe, Andreas and Armstrong, J. Scott and Cuzan, Alfred G. and Jones, Randall J., Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote (January 1, 2009). FORESIGHT, No. 12, Winter 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1656063

Andreas Graefe

Macromedia University of Applied Sciences ( email )

Sandstrasse 9
Munich, Bavaria 80337
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.andreas-graefe.org

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

Randall J. Jones

University of Central Oklahoma ( email )

100 North University Drive
Edmond, OK 73034
United States

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