Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

Abstract

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket’s share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46.6% (as of the end of November). In his Hot New Research column in this issue, Paul Goodwin discusses the benefits of combining forecasts. The success of the Pollyvote should further enhance interest is this approach to forecasting.