Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction

Abstract

Jørgensen’s paper examines the application of the one of the most well established findings in forecasting – namely, the superior accuracy of quantitative models in comparison to judgmental forecasts. Models improved accuracy in 72% of the 136 studies in the meta-analysis by Grove, et al. (2000). However, in Jørgensen’s metaanalysis, restricted to forecasts of software effort, models were superior for only 38% of the studies.