Can China's Miraculous Growth Continue?
Rajah Rasiah, Zhang Miao and Xin-Xin Kong (2013) “Can China’s Miraculous Growth Continue?”, Journal of Contemporary Asia, 43(2): 295-313.
Posted: 5 Jul 2013
Date Written: 2013
This paper analyses the growth trajectory and structural change pattern of China to assess its capacity to continue its rapid growth over the next decade. The evidence demonstrates that the multi-path approach undertaken has enabled China to transform its economy from low value added towards high value added activities through structural change from low to high value added industries, as well as, upgrading within industries. In doing so, China did not follow the neo-liberal advocacy of freeing markets. Selective interventions facilitated China’s transformation from an agricultural to an industrial economy over the last few decades. Upgrading towards higher value added activities and the continuing strength of macroeconomic indicators such as balance of payment and capital account surpluses, and low trade intensity of GDP and debt service along with significant deepening in human capital and R&D activities suggests that China will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade. China’s main concerns to continue that path is to find solutions to growing deficits in power and water supply, and potentially dangerous political upheavals if growing economic inequality problems are not solved.
Keywords: China, economic growth, structural change, growth strategies
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