Endogenous Gentrification and Housing-Price Dynamics

42 Pages Posted: 11 Aug 2010 Last revised: 29 Oct 2014

Veronica Guerrieri

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Daniel A. Hartley

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Erik Hurst

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 1, 2013

Abstract

In this paper, we begin by documenting substantial variation in house-price growth across neighborhoods within a city during citywide housing price booms. We then present a model which links house-price movements across neighborhoods within a city and the gentrification of those neighborhoods in response to a citywide housing-demand shock. A key ingredient in our model is a positive neighborhood externality: individuals like to live next to richer neighbors. This generates an equilibrium where households segregate based upon their income. In response to a citywide demand shock, higher-income residents will choose to expand their housing by migrating into the poorer neighborhoods that directly abut the initial richer neighborhoods. The in-migration of the richer residents into these border neighborhoods will bid up prices in those neighborhoods, causing the original poorer residents to migrate out. We refer to this process as “endogenous gentrification.” Using a variety of data sets and using Bartik variation across cities to identify city-level housing demand shocks, we find strong empirical support for the model’s predictions.

Keywords: gentrifi cation, housing-price dynamics, housing-consumption externalities.

JEL Classification: R12, R21, I32

Suggested Citation

Guerrieri, Veronica and Hartley, Daniel A. and Hurst, Erik, Endogenous Gentrification and Housing-Price Dynamics (June 1, 2013). FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 10-08r. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1657176 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1657176

Veronica Guerrieri (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Daniel A. Hartley

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ( email )

230 South LaSalle Street
Chicago, IL 60604
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.danielaaronhartley.com

Erik Hurst

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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