Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable

Posted: 15 Aug 2010

See all articles by Nathaniel Beck

Nathaniel Beck

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics

Jonathan N. Katz

California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Richard M. Tucker

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: August 13, 2010

Abstract

Researchers typically analyze time-series-cross-section data with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS) using ordinary logit or probit. However, BTSCS observations are likely to violate the independence assumption of the ordinary logit or probit statistical model. It is well known that if the observations are temporally related that the results of an ordinary logit or probit analysis may be misleading. In this paper, we provide a simple diagnostic for temporal dependence and a simple remedy. Our remedy is based on the idea that BTSCS data are identical to grouped duration data. This remedy does not require the BTSCS analyst to acquire any further methodological skills, and it can be easily implemented in any standard statistical software package. While our approach is suitable for any type of BTSCS data, we provide examples and applications from the field of International Relations, where BTSCS data are frequently used. We use our methodology to reassess Oneal and Russett's (1997) findings regarding the relationship between economic interdependence, democracy, and peace. Our analyses show that (1) their finding that economic interdependence is associated with peace is an artifact of their failure to account for temporal dependence yet (2) their finding that democracy inhibits conflict is upheld even taking duration dependence into account.

Suggested Citation

Beck, Nathaniel and Katz, Jonathan N. and Tucker, Richard M., Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable (August 13, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1658663

Nathaniel Beck

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics ( email )

715 Broadway
New York, NY 10003
United States

Jonathan N. Katz (Contact Author)

California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences ( email )

1200 East California Blvd.
Pasadena, CA 91125
United States
626-395-4191 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://jkatz.caltech.edu

Richard M. Tucker

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
510
PlumX Metrics