Analysis of Radio Spectrum Market Evolution Possibilities

Abstract

A tremendous growth in wireless traffic volumes and a shortage of feasible radio spectrum has led to a situation where the old and rigid spectrum regime is not a viable option for spectrum management and a shift towards a more market driven approach has begun. Great uncertainty still exists over how such a radio spectrum market will come about and what kind of shape it would take. This paper studies some long term macro level evolution possibilities for how this radio spectrum market could emerge and what would be the corresponding value chain configurations. The scenario planning and system dynamics methods are utilized to build four alternative future spectrum market scenarios.

Keywords: Spectrum Markets, Spectrum Policy, Flexible Spectrum Usage, Cognitive Radio, Value Networks, Scenario Planning, System Dynamics

JEL Classification: L33, L34, L51