Simulated Scenarios of Conventional Oil Production

4th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, University of London & LSE

Posted: 25 Aug 2010

Date Written: August 24, 2010

Abstract

The ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model is an agent-based model of conventional oil production. The model accounts for four key uncertainties, namely Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), estimated growth in oil demand, estimated growth in oil production and assumed peak/decline point. This work provides an overview of the ACEGES model capabilities and an example of how it can be used for long-term scenarios of conventional oil production. Because the ACEGES model has been developed using the Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) modelling paradigm, the macro-phenomenon of interest (world oil production) grows from sets of micro-foundations (country-specific decision of oil production). The simulated data is analyzed in GAMLSS (Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape). GAMLSS is a general framework of modelling where the response variable (oil production) can have a very general (up to four parameters) distribution and all of the parameters of the distributions are modelled as linear or smooth function of the explanatory variable (e.g., time). From a methodological perspective, ACEGES and GAMLSS are applied to help leaders in government, business and civil society better understand the challenging outlook for energy through controlled computational experiments.

Keywords: oil depletion, oil forecasting, ACEGES, agent-based model, energy systems

JEL Classification: Q41

Suggested Citation

Voudouris, Vlasios, Simulated Scenarios of Conventional Oil Production (August 24, 2010). 4th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, University of London & LSE . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1664328

Vlasios Voudouris (Contact Author)

ABM Analytics Ltd ( email )

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