Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

University of Otago Economics Discussion Papers No. 1007

33 Pages Posted: 29 Aug 2010

See all articles by Nicholas King

Nicholas King

University of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics

P. Dorian Owen

University of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics

Rick Audas

University of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics

Date Written: August 26, 2010

Abstract

This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modeling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

Keywords: playoff uncertainty, match uncertainty, sports league attendance, Australian National Rugby League, fixed effects estimation

JEL Classification: C23, L83

Suggested Citation

King, Nicholas and Owen, P. Dorian and Audas, Rick, Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches (August 26, 2010). University of Otago Economics Discussion Papers No. 1007, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1666575 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1666575

Nicholas King

University of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

PO Box 56
Dunedin
New Zealand

P. Dorian Owen (Contact Author)

University of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

PO Box 56
Dunedin
New Zealand

Rick Audas

University of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

PO Box 56
Dunedin
New Zealand

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