Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

16 Pages Posted: 30 Aug 2010 Last revised: 3 Oct 2010

See all articles by Michael J. Roberts

Michael J. Roberts

North Carolina State University - Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics

Wolfram Schlenker

Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA)

Date Written: August 2010

Abstract

Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.

Suggested Citation

Roberts, Michael J. and Schlenker, Wolfram, Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields (August 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16308. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1668382

Michael J. Roberts (Contact Author)

North Carolina State University - Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics ( email )

Box 8109
3332 Nelson Hall
Raleigh, NC 27695-8109
United States
(919) 513-8060 (Phone)
(919) 515-1824 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~mjrober2/main/Home.html

Wolfram Schlenker

Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA) ( email )

420 West 118th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States
2128541806 (Phone)

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