Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia

14 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2010

See all articles by Ross S. Guest

Ross S. Guest

Griffith University - School of Accounting and Finance - Gold Coast Campus

Robyn Swift

Griffith University - Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics

Abstract

This article assesses the effect of population ageing on housing consumption and house prices. Using two approaches, this article finds that the ageing of the population may cause average real house prices to be between 3 and 27 per cent lower than they otherwise would be over the period 2008–2050. The first approach is an econometric estimation of house prices for Australia over the period 1980–2008. The second approach is a simulation of a life cycle-optimising model with representative overlapping generations.

Suggested Citation

Guest, Ross and Swift, Robyn, Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia. Australian Economic Review, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 240-253, September 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1670345 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2010.00586.x

Ross Guest (Contact Author)

Griffith University - School of Accounting and Finance - Gold Coast Campus ( email )

PMB 50 Gold Coast Mail Centre
9726 Queensland
Australia

Robyn Swift

Griffith University - Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics ( email )

Nathan Campus
Brisbane QLD, 4111
Australia

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