The Impact of Equity Misvaluation on Predictive Accuracy of Bankruptcy Models
Posted: 21 May 2019
Date Written: May 2014
This paper examines the impact of equity misvaluation on the predictive accuracy of bankruptcy models. We find that structural bankruptcy prediction models are not affected by misvaluation. However, for hazard models, forecasting accuracy for properly-valued firms is greater than for misvalued firms and model forecasting accuracy improves significantly if model coefficients vary with misvaluation. Our results show the importance of taking stock market misvaluation into account when forecasting bankruptcies using hazard models.
Keywords: bankruptcy prediction, market efficiency, accounting information relevance
JEL Classification: G33, G14, M41
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