Assessing Inherent Model Bias: An Application to Native Displacement in Response to Immigration

27 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2010 Last revised: 8 Feb 2014

See all articles by Giovanni Peri

Giovanni Peri

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics

Chad Sparber

Colgate University - Economics Department

Date Written: September 2010

Abstract

There is a long-standing debate among academics about the effect of immigration on native internal migration decisions. If immigrants displace natives this may indicate a direct cost of immigration in the form of decreased employment opportunity for native workers. Moreover, displacement would also imply that cross-region analyses of wage effects systematically underestimate the consequences of immigration. The widespread use of such area studies for the US and other countries makes it especially important to know whether a native internal response to immigration truly occurs. This paper introduces a microsimulation methodology to test for inherent bias in regression models that have been used in the literature. We show that some specifications have built biases into their models, thereby casting doubt on the validity of their results. We then provide a brief empirical analysis with a panel of observed US state-by-skill data. Together, our evidence argues against the existence of native displacement. This implies that cross-region analyses of immigration's effect on wages are still informative.

Suggested Citation

Peri, Giovanni and Sparber, Chad, Assessing Inherent Model Bias: An Application to Native Displacement in Response to Immigration (September 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16332. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1672584

Giovanni Peri (Contact Author)

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics ( email )

One Shields Drive
Davis, CA 95616-8578
United States
530-752-3033 (Phone)
530-752-9382 (Fax)

Chad Sparber

Colgate University - Economics Department ( email )

13 Oak Drive
Hamilton, NY 13346
United States

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