The Future of the Eurozone and Gold

CEPS Special Reports, 2010

44 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2010

See all articles by Cinzia Alcidi

Cinzia Alcidi

CEPS; Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID)

Paul De Grauwe

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research); London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Daniel Gros

Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Yonghyup Oh

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Date Written: September 3, 2010

Abstract

This report considers four short-term, alternative scenarios for the eurozone and analyses their possible implications for global economic trends and the gold market. Overall, the main findings suggest that in the near future, motives other than inflation hedging will be the main drivers of gold market dynamics. Growth in emerging economies, which are among the largest sources of gold demand, and financial market uncertainty, will be the most important ones. In particular, even if the worst scenario were to materialise and adverse global conditions could slow Asian growth, demand for gold from this region should not fall significantly. Moreover, even in the most optimistic scenario for the eurozone, global uncertainty will not evaporate easily. As a consequence, the gold price may continue to trend upwards for a period driven by investment demand from both the private sector and official investors.

Keywords: eurozone, gold market, inflation, economie, financial market

Suggested Citation

Alcidi, Cinzia and De Grauwe, Paul and De Grauwe, Paul and Gros, Daniel and Oh, Yonghyup, The Future of the Eurozone and Gold (September 3, 2010). CEPS Special Reports, 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1672672

Cinzia Alcidi (Contact Author)

CEPS ( email )

1 Place du Congres
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) ( email )

132, Rue de Lausanne
Geneva, 1211
Switzerland

Paul De Grauwe

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Daniel Gros

Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels ( email )

1 Place du Congres
B-1000 Brussels, 1000
Belgium

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Yonghyup Oh

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

300-4, Yomgok-Dong
Seocho-Gu
Seoul, 137-747
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
(82) 2 3460 1022 (Phone)
(82) 2 3460 1212 (Fax)

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
240
Abstract Views
1,295
rank
176,393
PlumX Metrics