Spatio-Temporal Variability of Rainfall Over Bangladesh During the Time Period 1969-2003

Abstract

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bangladesh has been studied in this paper from thirty-five years (1969-2003) of rainfall data recorded at 24 rain gauges distributed over the country. Long-term annual average rainfall, coefficient of variation of annual rainfall, precipitation concentration and aridity indices at each station have been computed and then interpolated using kriging method within a geographic information system to show the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. Mann-Kendall test has been used to analyze the trend in rainfall data in different recording stations and the Sen’s slope method has been used to determine the magnitude of change. A moderate variation in inter-annual rainfall and high variation in intra-annual rainfall in Bangladesh have been observed. Non-significant positive trend of annual, monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall, and a negative trend in winter rainfall are found in Bangladesh. Spatial distribution of rainfall trends shows that rainfall is increasing in the coastal zone and northern Bangladesh, and decreasing in the central part of the country. A declining trend of precipitation concentration is also observed in most of the stations. These results may be a first indication of the precipitation response to global warming – a hypothesis which needs to be further investigated by means of climate model projections.

Keywords: Aridity, rainfall trend analysis, precipitation concentration index, climate change, GIS