Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Conditions on Family Formation for Japanese Youth

41 Pages Posted: 18 Sep 2010

See all articles by Yuki Hashimoto

Yuki Hashimoto

Graduate School of Economics, the University of Tokyo

Ayako Kondo

University of Tokyo - Institute of Social Science

Date Written: September 1, 2010

Abstract

This study aims to examine how each cohort’s family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan’s declining marriage and fertility rates, the effects of slack labor market conditions on marriage and fertility are theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions on marriage and fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, the male unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group. Second, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children and tend to marry later. In contrast, a recession at entry to the labor market rather increases fertility among college-educated women. The overall impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on family formation is relatively weak, compared to the substantial losses in earnings and employment stability documented by the existing studies.

Suggested Citation

Hashimoto, Yuki and Kondo, Ayako, Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Conditions on Family Formation for Japanese Youth (September 1, 2010). ISER Discussion Paper No. 789, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1677728 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1677728

Yuki Hashimoto

Graduate School of Economics, the University of Tokyo ( email )

Yayoi 1-1-1
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8657
Japan

Ayako Kondo (Contact Author)

University of Tokyo - Institute of Social Science ( email )

Hongo 7-3-1
Tokyo, TOKYO 113-0033
Japan

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