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Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight

42 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2010  

Eric M. Leeper

Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Alexander W. Richter

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Todd B. Walker

Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2010

Abstract

Changes in fiscal policy typically entail two kinds of lags: the legislative lag--between when legislation is proposed and when it is signed into law--and the implementation lag--from when a new fiscal law is enacted and when it takes effect. These lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place--time when households and firms can adjust their behavior. We identify two types of fiscal news--government spending and changes in tax policy--and map the news processes into standard DSGE models. We identify news concerning taxes through the municipal bond market. If asset markets are efficient, the yield spread between tax-exempt municipal bonds and treasuries should be a function of the news concerning changes in tax policy. We identify news concerning government spending through the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We conclude that news concerning fiscal variables is a time-varying process that can have important qualitative and quantitative effects.

Suggested Citation

Leeper, Eric M. and Richter, Alexander W. and Walker, Todd B., Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight (September 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16363. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1678907

Eric Michael Leeper (Contact Author)

Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Alexander W. Richter

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://alexrichterecon.com

Todd B. Walker

Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics ( email )

Wylie Hall
Bloomington, IN 47405-6620
United States

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