Using Expert Assessments to Forecast the 2010 House Election
15 Pages Posted: 30 Sep 2010
Date Written: September 28, 2010
I propose a methodology for forecasting the 2010 House election using current and historical race-specific expert rankings. Using ratings from the Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports and adjusting to overcome a potential pro-Democratic bias, the method projects that the Democrats are likely to retain control of the House, albeit with a significantly narrower majority than currently enjoyed.
Keywords: Election, House, Forecast
JEL Classification: C53, D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation