Quantitative Evidence of Goodwin’s Non-Linear Growth Cycles

Universidad Nacional de Colombia Documento FCE No. EE-15

15 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2010

See all articles by Mario García Molina

Mario García Molina

National University of Colombia - Department of Economics

Alba Graciela Ávila Bernal

Universidad de los Andes, Colombia

Ibrahim Massy

Telecom Bretagne

Date Written: October 1, 2010

Abstract

The article searches for quantitative evidence in favor of an extended version of Goodwin´s predator-prey model of endogenous distribution-employment cycles for 16 countries. The model is extended to include several harmonics in both series. The model fits all the observations both within sample and out of sample for half of the countries, with a 10% error, and for 4 countries with a 5% error. This suggests that the model may be useful in empirical work.

Keywords: Predator–Prey Model, Non–Linear Dynamic Behavior, Demand Cycles, Employment, Distribution

JEL Classification: C10, E32, E19, O47

Suggested Citation

García Molina, Mario and Ávila Bernal, Alba Graciela and Massy, Ibrahim, Quantitative Evidence of Goodwin’s Non-Linear Growth Cycles (October 1, 2010). Universidad Nacional de Colombia Documento FCE No. EE-15. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1686039 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1686039

Mario García Molina (Contact Author)

National University of Colombia - Department of Economics ( email )

Carrera 30 Calle 45 Ciudad Universitaria
Bogotá
Colombia

HOME PAGE: http://www.unal.edu.co

Alba Graciela Ávila Bernal

Universidad de los Andes, Colombia ( email )

Carrera Primera # 18A-12
Bogota, DC D.C. 110311
Colombia
5713394949 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.uniandes.edu.co

Ibrahim Massy

Telecom Bretagne ( email )

Technopôle Brest-Iroise - CS 83818 - 29238
Brest
France

HOME PAGE: http://international.telecom-bretagne.eu/

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