Automated Trading with Genetic-Algorithm Neural-Network Risk Cybernetics: An Application on FX Markets
Finamatrix Journal, February 2012
28 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2010 Last revised: 8 Aug 2015
Date Written: February 20, 2012
Abstract
Recent years have witnessed the advancement of automated algorithmic trading systems as institutional solutions in the form of autobots, black box or expert advisors. However, little research has been done in this area with sufficient evidence to show the efficiency of these systems. This paper builds an automated trading system which implements an optimized genetic-algorithm neural-network (GANN) model with cybernetic concepts and evaluates the success using a modified value-at-risk (MVaR) framework. The cybernetic engine includes a circular causal feedback control feature and a developed golden-ratio estimator, which can be applied to any form of market data in the development of risk-pricing models. The paper applies the Euro and Yen forex rates as data inputs. It is shown that the technique is useful as a trading and volatility control system for institutions including central bank monetary policy as a risk-minimizing strategy. Furthermore, the results are achieved within a 30-second timeframe for an intra-week trading strategy, offering relatively low latency performance. The results show that risk exposures are reduced by four to five times with a maximum possible success rate of 96%, providing evidence for further research and development in this area.
Keywords: Automation, Autobot, Genetic-Algorithm Neural-Network, Risk-Pricing, Risk Cybernetics, Expert Advisor
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
By Thierry Post and Haim Levy
-
Preferences Over Meyer's Location-Scale Family
By Wing-keung Wong and Chenghu Ma
-
On Testing the Equality of the Multiple Sharpe Ratios, with Application on the Evaluation of Ishares
By Pui-lam Leung and Wing-keung Wong
-
On the Markowitz Mean-Variance Analysis of Self-Financing Portfolios
By Zhidong Bai, Huixia Liu, ...
-
w-MPS Risk Aversion and the CAPM
By Chenghu Ma and Phelim P. Boyle
-
Stochastic Dominance and Risk Measure: A Decision-Theoretic Foundation for VAR and C-Var
By Wing-keung Wong and Chenghu Ma
-
Prospect Theory, Indifference Curves, and Hedging Risks
By Udo Broll, Martin Egozcue, ...