The Development of Health Expenditures in the Social Health Insurance (SHI) in Germany Until 2050 - Remaining Challenge for German Health Policy
28 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2010 Last revised: 27 Jul 2014
Date Written: October 7, 2010
This paper projects the health expenditures in the social health insurance (SHI) in Germany until 2050. The long-term expenditure volume of the SHI is analyzed by OLS, vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). The SHI-expenditures are driven in particular by medical-technical progress and income. If health policy continues to finance health expenditures in the SHI over income-related contribution-rates, contribution-rates will rise to values between 27 and 33 percent in 2050. If the financing would be changed over in the year 2011 to income-independent flat rates per person, these are expected to rise from approximately 100 euros in 2010 to values up to 670 euros in 2050.
Note: Downloadable document is in German.
Keywords: Health Care Expenditures, OLS, Time-Series-Models, VAR-Model, VECM-Model
JEL Classification: C 22, I10
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation