The Development of Health Expenditures in the Social Health Insurance (SHI) in Germany Until 2050 - Remaining Challenge for German Health Policy

28 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2010 Last revised: 27 Jul 2014

See all articles by Dirk Sauerland

Dirk Sauerland

Witten/Herdecke University - Department of Management and Economics

Ansgar Wübker

RWI

Date Written: October 7, 2010

Abstract

This paper projects the health expenditures in the social health insurance (SHI) in Germany until 2050. The long-term expenditure volume of the SHI is analyzed by OLS, vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). The SHI-expenditures are driven in particular by medical-technical progress and income. If health policy continues to finance health expenditures in the SHI over income-related contribution-rates, contribution-rates will rise to values between 27 and 33 percent in 2050. If the financing would be changed over in the year 2011 to income-independent flat rates per person, these are expected to rise from approximately 100 euros in 2010 to values up to 670 euros in 2050.

Note: Downloadable document is in German.

Keywords: Health Care Expenditures, OLS, Time-Series-Models, VAR-Model, VECM-Model

JEL Classification: C 22, I10

Suggested Citation

Wübker, Ansgar and Sauerland, Dirk, The Development of Health Expenditures in the Social Health Insurance (SHI) in Germany Until 2050 - Remaining Challenge for German Health Policy (October 7, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1688883 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1688883

Dirk Sauerland

Witten/Herdecke University - Department of Management and Economics ( email )

Alfred-Herrhausen-Straße 50
Witten, 58448
Germany

Ansgar Wübker (Contact Author)

RWI ( email )

Hohenzollernstr. 1-3
Essen, 45128
Germany

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