Riskdata; CES Univ. Paris 1
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Tandon School of Engineering
October 12, 2010
Using the metadistribution of possible distributions for a given measure, we define a condition under which it is possible to make a decision based on the observation of random variable, which we call "statistical decidability". We provide a sufficient condition on the metadistribution for the decision to be "statistically decidable" and conjecture that decisions based on a metadistribution with non compact support are always "statistically undecidable". There is the need for a strong undefeasable a priori without which decisions are not statistically justified - an effect that is very significant for decisions affected by small probabilities.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 3
Date posted: October 14, 2010 ; Last revised: December 28, 2015