Statistical Undecidability

Raphael Douady

Riskdata; CES Univ. Paris 1

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

NYU-Tandon School of Engineering

October 12, 2010

Using the metadistribution of possible distributions for a given measure, we define a condition under which it is possible to make a decision based on the observation of random variable, which we call "statistical decidability". We provide a sufficient condition on the metadistribution for the decision to be "statistically decidable" and conjecture that decisions based on a metadistribution with non compact support are always "statistically undecidable". There is the need for a strong undefeasable a priori without which decisions are not statistically justified - an effect that is very significant for decisions affected by small probabilities.

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Date posted: October 14, 2010 ; Last revised: December 28, 2015

Suggested Citation

Douady, Raphael and Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, Statistical Undecidability (October 12, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1691165 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1691165

Contact Information

Raphael Douady
Riskdata ( email )
6, rue de l'Amiral Coligny
Paris, 75001
HOME PAGE: http://www.riskdata.com
CES Univ. Paris 1 ( email )
106 bv de l'Hôpital
Paris, 75013
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Contact Author)
NYU-Tandon School of Engineering ( email )
Bobst Library, E-resource Acquisitions
20 Cooper Square 3rd Floor
New York, NY 10003-711
United States
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