An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area

National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 35

71 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2010

See all articles by Frank Smets

Frank Smets

European Central Bank (ECB); KU Leuven - Center for Economic Studies

Rafael Wouters

National Bank of Belgium

Date Written: October 1, 2002

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilisation. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macro-economic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal structural shocks (including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks) allows for an empirical investigation of the effects of such shocks and of their contribution to business cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Using the estimated model, the paper also analyses the output (real interest rate) gap, defined as the difference between the actual and model-based potential output (real interest rate).

Keywords: DSGE models, monetary policy, euro area

JEL Classification: E4, E5

Suggested Citation

Smets, Frank and Wouters, Rafael, An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area (October 1, 2002). National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 35. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1691984 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1691984

Frank Smets (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
+49 69 1344 6550 (Phone)
+49 69 1344 6575 (Fax)

KU Leuven - Center for Economic Studies ( email )

Naamsestraat 69
Leuven, B-3000
Belgium

Rafael Wouters

National Bank of Belgium ( email )

Brussels, B-1000
Belgium
+32 2 221 5441 (Phone)
+32 2 221 3162 (Fax)

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